I drew this map before partisan data was available by just guessing at the percentages. All I had to do was open it up and the data was there, so simple. My take on this is a lot different from others on the site, I believe Republican legislators will produce a relatively neat map, close to what happened in Indiana. The Republican heading up redistricting has said that they are looking at doing a fair map and that's what I think will happen, particularly because it's very ugly to gerrymander the state. It would result in a net gain of one for the GOP. I realize that this is a way out on the limb prediction, but I am not adverse to making those sometimes.
NC-1: G.K. Butterfield
68% Obama, 31% McCain
47% Black overall and 46% VAP. Picks up some very Democratic and black precincts from NC-2 and NC-13, plus some of Durham from NC-4.
NC-2: Renee Ellmers
54% McCain, 44% Obama
Strengthening “Victory Mosques” Ellmers will be a top priority and this is how doing that would look. Only retains the most Republicans precincts in Wake County.
NC-3: Walter Jones
53% McCain, 45% Obama
Drops some in PVI, but not enough to damage Jones. Could be a bit better if NC-1 had scribbly lines extended out, but in order for it to pick up Dem votes in Raleigh, it had to pull out of some places.
NC-4: David Price
61% Obama, 37% McCain
Close to the same as it was before. Helps pick up some deep blues precincts in Wake.
NC-5: Virginia Foxx
58% McCain, 40% Obama
A slightly lower PVI, but not a big difference.
NC-6: Howard Coble
63% McCain, 35% Obama
Larry Kissell lives here also, but would definitely not run. Coble would definitely like to keep his PVI up and as the most dean of the delegation, he'll probably get it a solid one like this.
NC-7: OPEN
54% McCain, 45% Obama
This is basically what I did with Kissell's district, it got moved over here. Wilmington anchors the GOP leaning seat and it would surely be a solid GOP gain.
NC-8: Mike McIntyre
55% Obama, 43% McCain
In terms of drawing a GOP map, I believe it's better to give Mike McIntyre a vote sink like this. And it's majority-minority on top of that. There are a lot of Democrats in Fayetteville and Lumberton that had to go somewhere. McIntyre might face a primary here, perhaps from Larry Kissell, who is not too far out of this district.
NC-9: Sue Myrick
58% McCain, 40% Obama
Myrick gets a decent increase in PVI, picking up some heavy GOP territory from other districts.
NC-10: Patrick McHenry
63% McCain, 35% Obama
The person who likes to call people liars stays exactly the same in PVI.
NC-11: Heath Shuler
52% McCain, 45% Obama
They could split Ashville to sink Shuler, but I think they'll leave Western Carolina in tact. Shuler irks a lot of Democrats, but he's a good fit for this seat and is young enough to hold for a good amount of time.
NC-12: Melvin Watt
66% Obama, 32% McCain
It has been stated specifically that the current configuration will be scrapped and the seat will be compacted to Mecklenberg. Even though it's a good Dem vote sync, it seems Republicans still want to scrap it, which makes me think that they aren't going to be too aggressive elsewhere on the map, either (save for getting rid of Kissell).
NC-13: OPEN
59% Obama, 39% McCain
This looks like a district Republicans would not want to draw, but eliminating NC-12's shape means that they need some place to put all those Dems in Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem.
That would produce a solid 7-6 delegation for the GOP, which is close to proportional for the state. I might be wrong, but I almost exactly predicted the Indiana map and for North Carolina Democrats sake, I hope I am right about this one.
UPDATE
I did the same split, but with stronger districts for Republicans. I'm still positive that if they dismantle NC-12's current shape, they will create a Dem vote sink for Greensboro and Winston-Salem just to keep GOP incumbents safer.
NC-1: GK Butterfield
66% Obama, 32% McCain
49% Black overall, 48% by VAP. Picks up Dem areas in Raleigh
NC-2: Renee Ellmers
58% McCain, 40% Obama
Perfectly safe for the “Victory Mosques” believer.
NC-3: Walter Jones
57% McCain, 41% Obama
Loses a bit of strength to help Ellmers, put still good for Jones.
NC-4: David Price
60% Obama, 38% McCain
Price is given more of Wake. Miller might primary him here.
NC-5: Virginia Foxx
55% McCain, 43% Obama
Foxx has to take somewhat of a reduction if the current NC-12 is dismantled.
NC-6: Howard Coble
61% McCain, 37% Obama
Coble doesn't reside here and it's quite difficult to get his town in here, but it can be done with creative mapping.
NC-7: Larry Kissell
56% McCain, 42% Obama
Kissell gets a much more Republican district, which stretches from Wake County down to Monroe.
NC-8: Mike McIntyre
57% Obama, 41% McCain
Again, I have drawn a vote sink for McIntyre, although it might be very close to giving him trouble in the primary.
NC-9: Sue Myrick
57% McCain, 41% Obama
Myrick's seat now stretches up are around to Statesville.
NC-10: Patrick McHenry
62% Obama, 35% McCain
McHenry is fine here.
NC-11: Heath Shuler
52% McCain, 45% Obama
No real change at all.
NC-12: Melvin Watt
62% Obama, 36% McCain
Contracts completed to Mecklenberg County.
NC-13: OPEN
67% Obama, 31% McCain
Heavily Dem vote sink, they may or may not draw this, depending on how they feel GOP incumbents can handle these precincts in their territory. They may figure out how to neutralize this precincts, but it won't be a breeze.